In finance, understanding the true worth of an asset is paramount. This is where the concept of intrinsic value comes into play. Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is actually worth, independent of its current price. It’s the real, inherent value of a company, property, or currency, calculated through various financial analyses. This article delves into the methodologies for calculating intrinsic value, including net present value, liquidation value, and relative value, and touches upon more speculative approaches like assessing total addressable market and supply-and-demand dynamics.
Intrinsic value can be an elusive figure. There is no one set equation that will allow you to be revealed the exact worth of an asset. To be honest, an asset is actually worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. This reveals a flaw in our financial reality and is the causation behind speculative bubbles. Sometimes, because of human perception, it is more attractive to own one asset compared to another based purely on popularity and not economic reality. This troublesome scenario becomes magnified in the public markets where participants end up paying many times more for a popular security then what a rational buyer would consider acquiring the tangible asset.
This is why intrinsic value is such an important concept for investors to master. When operating in a world driven by the market demand of buyers and sellers, it is easy to get caught up in the “l’esprit du temps” or the spirit of the age. By being able to conduct fundamental analysis and independent research, a discerning investor can discover securities that are trading far out of line with their intrinsic value, thus avoiding potentially overvalued securities while being able to home in on the bargains of today.
To be equipped with this skillset one must understand the various forms of intrinsic value calculation. It is important to understand that there are many different ways to calculate intrinsic value, and each of them are for a specific kind of scenario. One asset might seem overvalued based on one form of intrinsic value calculation only to reveal a fire sale bargain if calculated in a different manner. Intrinsic value calculations are like tools on an investors tool belt, and a large part of the job is deciding which tool should be utilized for which job.
To grasp the concept of intrinsic value, imagine you’re evaluating a piece of land. Its intrinsic value would be determined by factors like its location, fertility (if it’s agricultural land), development potential, and current use, rather than the price at which it’s being sold in the market. This principle applies across assets, including stocks, bonds, and even currencies.
Net Present Value (NPV) – Discounted Future Cash Flows
One of the most common methods to calculate intrinsic value is the Net Present Value or NPV method. This involves discounting the future cash flows that an asset is expected to generate back to their present value, using a discount rate that reflects the risk of those cash flows. This technique is particularly useful for investments like stocks, where future earnings and cash distributions can be estimated and then discounted to their present value.
Valuing assets, especially stocks that generate cash, through methods like Net Present Value (NPV) is fundamentally logical. However, this approach relies heavily on forecasting future cash flows, which introduces a significant degree of uncertainty and speculation. When investors attempt to predict future cash generation, growth rates, discount rates, and terminal values, they’re essentially making educated guesses about the future.
The main challenge here is that numerous unpredictable factors can affect these estimates. For example, changes in the economy, industry shifts, or unexpected company events can all impact future cash flows and growth prospects. Because of this, the valuation can become speculative, much like standing on a fragile glass floor that might crack if any assumptions prove incorrect.
To mitigate this risk, it’s crucial to use conservative assumptions in these calculations. By being cautious and realistic about future growth and discount rates, investors can create a safety buffer that protects against the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future. This doesn’t eliminate the speculative nature of these valuations but helps ensure that the investment stands on a more secure foundation, even if some assumptions don’t pan out as expected.
When making assumptions about the future of a company’s cash flows, it is important to understand the past performance to determine what future performance is in the bounds of reason. By examining the past financials of a company, you can use that pool of data to incorporate confidence intervals into your NPV calculation.
Confidence intervals are a statistical tool used to estimate the range within which a certain parameter, such as an average or proportion, is expected to fall, with a specific level of confidence. This is crucial in financial analysis and valuation, particularly when dealing with uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forecasting future cash flows. In the context of Net Present Value (NPV) calculations for determining the intrinsic value of an investment, confidence intervals can provide a quantitative measure of the uncertainty associated with the estimated future cash flows, growth rates, and discount rates.
The process of calculating confidence intervals involves determining the mean (average) of your sample data (in this case, the forecasted cash flows) and then using a statistical formula to calculate the range around this mean that is likely to contain the true population mean. The width of this interval depends on the standard deviation of the sample (a measure of variability), the size of the sample, and the desired level of confidence (commonly 95%). By applying confidence intervals to NPV calculations, investors can not only get a point estimate of an investment’s worth but also understand the range within which the actual NPV might realistically fall, considering the inherent forecasting risk. This approach allows for a more nuanced investment decision-making process, where risks and uncertainties are explicitly acknowledged and factored into the valuation.
Another way to value a company’s cash flows is to calculate the Free Cash Flow Yield. Free Cash Flow Yield is a financial metric that measures the amount of free cash flow per share a company generates relative to its share price. It’s calculated by dividing the free cash flow per share by the current market price per share. This yield provides an indication of the company’s ability to generate cash from its operations, which could be available for dividends, debt repayment, or reinvestment, in relation to its stock price. This form of cash flow valuation is more readily available, it allows for investors to interpret the cash flow yield as a percentage thus making it easier to compare to other securities.
Liquidation Value
Liquidation value takes a more pessimistic view. It calculates intrinsic value based on the premise that a business is no longer a going concern. This method tallies up the net cash that would be received if all assets were sold and liabilities paid off. It’s a bottom-line approach, often considered by investors as a safety net or worst-case scenario valuation.
Benjamin Graham, often heralded as the “father of value investing,” was a pioneering figure in the world of finance and investment. His investment philosophy laid the groundwork for what many now recognize as value investing. One of Graham’s key concepts was the “margin of safety,” which refers to the practice of purchasing stocks at a significant discount to their intrinsic value, thus minimizing the risk of loss.
Graham’s approach to finding investment opportunities included identifying “Net-Nets.” These are companies trading below their net current asset value (NCAV), specifically those whose market capitalizations were less than their net current assets minus all liabilities. To calculate this, Graham would look at a company’s current assets (such as cash, receivables, and inventory), subtract total liabilities (including preferred stock), and compare the result to the company’s market capitalization. If the stock was trading for less than the net current assets minus all liabilities, it was considered a Net-Net.
The rationale behind investing in Net-Nets was straightforward: if a company is trading for less than its liquidation value, then there is a viable margin of safety. This implies that the investor is acquiring the operating business for a substantial discount. Graham saw this as a margin of safety because, in theory, the investor could profit even if the company’s operations were to perform poorly. The investor is protected by the underlying assets of the company, which could, in a worst-case scenario, be sold off for a value higher than the price paid for the stock.
Graham’s use of liquidation value to value Net-Nets was revolutionary at the time and remains a fundamental principle of value investing today. His strategies emphasized the importance of fundamental analysis, patience, and a disciplined approach to investing, with the aim of achieving long-term, risk-adjusted returns.
While Net-Nets are still around today, they are usually found in obscure areas of the market. Usually, they are poorly preforming stocks with operational issues, and the small market capitalization of most Net-Nets makes them only accessible to small scale investors. This can be an advantage for enterprising investors looking for a market edge.
Benefiting from investing in Net-Nets typically unfolds through one of three scenarios. First, a cyclical rebound may cause the stock to begin trading above its net current asset value, leading to a profit for investors who purchased shares while they were undervalued. Secondly, an acquisition could occur, where another company acquires the undervalued company at a premium price compared to its market price, giving investors an opportunity to profit from the takeover. Lastly, in some cases, the company may go into liquidation, where its assets are sold off. The cash generated from this process can either be reinvested into more profitable ventures or distributed to shareholders, providing a potential return on their investment. These scenarios highlight the opportunities for investors to realize gains from Net-Nets, underscoring the potential margin of safety provided by investing in companies trading below their liquidation value.
Another valuable approach in liquidation analysis, which remains relevant in today’s markets, is calculating the readily ascertainable value of a company’s fixed assets. This method focuses on assessing the value locked in the company’s Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE). When conducting this analysis, several critical questions need to be addressed. For instance, how does the value of the land owned by the company compare to the cost recorded on the company’s balance sheet? Is there equipment that could be repurposed or sold at a value higher than its current operational use? Additionally, are there any unproductive assets that could be liquidated to streamline the balance sheet? By determining the readily ascertainable value of a company’s assets, investors might uncover surprises. Often, assets recorded on the balance sheet at a certain value can differ significantly from their actual economic value if sold in the current market. This discrepancy can reveal hidden opportunities for value realization.
Relative Value
Relative value analysis compares the value of an asset to similar assets in the market. This could involve comparing price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, or other financial metrics of companies within the same industry. It’s a comparative method that assumes “the market knows best” but adjusts for situations where similar assets are undervalued or overvalued.
Relative value analysis is an extremely important tool for an investor. In a world where there are thousands of tradable securities, how is one supposed to discern between one attractive opportunity and another? By understanding financial metrics, it allows for a quantifiable approach of comparison.
This is where figures like free cash flow yield play a vital role. When formatting free cash flow generation into a percentage, it allows for a comparison of free cash flow yields across the board. It makes it easier to view the discission behind purchasing something with a 10% free cash flow yield versus something with a 5% free cash flow yield. Of course, factors like growth of that yield over time play a role, but viewing and understanding the current yield of one security versus another is a valuable ability when beginning the financial analysis process.
It’s important to recognize that different industries exhibit characteristics that cause them to trade in alignment with one another. For example, if an industry is anticipated to see significant growth in the upcoming years and this growth potential is widely recognized, then securities within this sector might command higher valuations. Essentially, the lower a company’s current yield, the more optimistic the outlook for its future performance. Consider a company expected to grow by 5% in the next few years, with a 5% free cash flow yield. This scenario can be contrasted with a company that offers a current yield of 10% but has minimal or no expected growth. Through relative analysis, investors can start to assess securities across various sectors to pinpoint the most attractive investment opportunities at any given time. By thoroughly understanding financial metrics, industry characteristics, and market sentiment, an investor can adeptly compare fundamentally different investments, much like comparing apples to oranges, making informed decisions based on a comprehensive analysis.
Financial metrics are not a perfect form of valuation, and companies can skew the financials through accounting methods to either make a company look more or less attractive based on their motives. One way to mitigate this is to look at a wide variety of financial metrics, not just fixating on one metric to tell the whole story.
A useful exercise when utilizing relative analysis is to execute a DuPont Analysis. The DuPont Analysis is a financial analysis framework that deconstructs a company’s Return on Equity (ROE) into multiple components to understand the underlying drivers of financial performance. Named after the DuPont Corporation, which first implemented this analysis in the 1920s, the method breaks down ROE into three key components: operating efficiency (measured by profit margin), asset use efficiency (measured by asset turnover), and financial leverage (measured by the equity multiplier).
By analyzing ROE in this manner, the DuPont Analysis helps identify specific strengths and weaknesses in a company’s operations, financing strategies, and asset management. For example, a high ROE could be the result of excellent operational efficiency, effective use of assets, high financial leverage, or a combination of these factors. Conversely, it can also pinpoint areas where a company may be underperforming.
This breakdown is particularly useful in relative analysis, allowing investors to compare companies within the same industry or sector on these fundamental aspects. By understanding how different companies achieve their ROE, investors can make more informed decisions, identifying which companies are genuinely more efficient and profitable and which ones might be leveraging too much risk. The DuPont Analysis thus offers a nuanced view of company performance, beyond what simple ROE comparisons can provide, enabling deeper insights into how companies operate and compete.
Relative analysis is crucial in evaluating spin-offs or privately traded companies. When gauging how the market might perceive a company that isn’t publicly traded, identifying a similar, publicly traded company can offer valuable insights. By comparing valuations and operations of these peer companies, one can make an educated estimate of the range in which the currently non-public entity might trade. For example, if evaluating a privately traded company, finding a public company with closely related operations can provide a benchmark for what the private company’s valuation could be. The same principle applies to spin-offs. If a company is preparing to spin off a division, comparing it to similar, publicly traded companies can give a clear indication of its potential independent market valuation. Understanding how the market values similar businesses allows for an informed evaluation of a specific company, even before it begins trading on the open market.
Beyond Traditional Valuation
While traditional valuation methods provide a solid foundation, they often don’t capture the full picture, especially for innovative or rapidly growing companies. This is where more speculative forms of valuation come into play.
While these methods may not be as concrete as the other valuation methods mentioned previously in the article, they still hold value in one’s evaluation process, especially in markets with fast-growing companies or non-cash generative investments. It’s important to recognize that most of these evaluation methods described below are considered speculative. However, in rare scenarios, a deal may emerge that renders even this form of speculation intelligent.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) valuation looks at the potential future market size a company could capture with its products or services. This speculative method projects revenues if the company achieved a certain market share, offering insights into its growth potential. However, it heavily depends on assumptions about market trends and the company’s ability to capitalize on them.
This form of valuation is predominantly used in scenarios involving fast-growing companies and is the primary method utilized by venture capitalists. Before a company has an extensive operational history from which to draw conclusions about its operational characteristics, and in the absence of current cash flow, one often has little choice but to evaluate the company from a future-oriented perspective. When employing this method, investors typically rely on various growth metrics and market dominance indicators to determine a reasonable valuation for a firm. For example, a simplistic approach to calculating the total addressable market might look like this: If a company operates in a rapidly growing industry expected to reach a value of, say, $80 billion in the next few years, and if this new company could realistically capture 10% of its market in the coming years, then it could feasibly be valued at $8 billion, assuming that projected market size is achieved.
TAM is often calculated in conjunction with two other metrics: Serviceable Available Market (SAM) and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). SAM is the segment of the TAM targeted by products and services which is within geographical reach, while SOM is the portion of SAM that can be captured, considering current competition and operational capabilities. Together, these metrics offer a comprehensive view of market potential from the broadest perspective (TAM) to the most realistically achievable market share (SOM).
A word of caution is appropriate for investors looking to evaluate opportunities based on this style of valuation. It is highly susceptible to overly optimistic valuations, especially if the growth and market dominance statistics are sourced from the operational team seeking to sell equity in the company. TAM is a metric frequently utilized by management teams aiming to attract investors or sell equity, as it illustrates the overall market potential and growth opportunities of their business. If market dominance is overly emphasized and the addressable market is not captured as initially expected, then the previously established value can vanish, leaving no safety net. There’s a risk of losing 100% of the capital invested in ventures that have yet to show profitable operations, based on the hope of one day capturing a certain market share to make the operational model profitable. If you decide to venture into such situations, tread cautiously and treat these investments akin to a lottery ticket; if those projections don’t materialize, then the securities might become as worthless as a losing lottery ticket.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Supply and demand dynamics offer another angle, especially for commodities or currencies. This approach evaluates how changes in market supply (e.g., new mining operations) or demand (e.g., technological advancements increasing the need for a specific metal) could affect an asset’s value. It’s a more fluid and often volatile valuation method, reflecting the immediate impact of market sentiment and global economic factors.
Supply and demand dynamics play a crucial role in valuing non-cash producing assets, making it a key factor when considering the appeal of any particular commodity. This concept is often linked to speculation because making investment decisions based on supply and demand implies that you’re hoping to buy an asset that will increase in value, allowing you to sell it for a profit later. This approach is particularly relevant if you’re not creating anything yourself, i.e., transforming a raw commodity into a sellable product. In such cases, you’re likely engaged in commodity trading, a practice that dates back to the dawn of civilization.
Unlike valuation methods based on the total addressable market, which can see the perceived value of an asset vanish quickly, supply and demand analysis relies on historical usage and data. This provides a more strategic framework for asset acquisition. Even if your supply and demand forecasts are slightly off, and the potential for profit isn’t as high as initially expected, there’s usually still an opportunity to recoup some value from the transaction. Additionally, if you own the physical asset and it’s durable, you can often afford to wait for the market cycle to turn in your favor, even if it takes a long time.
Although commodity trading is risky and volatile, especially if using financial tools like futures, you can still find attractive trades with a relatively strong safety net if you practice discipline and patience. Warren Buffett, known for focusing on undervalued companies, made a notable move by investing in the silver market for Berkshire Hathaway. In the late 1990s, he bought 130 million ounces of silver, noticing that demand was outpacing supply due to its use in industries like photography, electronics, and jewelry. This imbalance suggested that silver prices would rise, making his investment profitable.
Buffett’s silver purchase showed his ability to apply supply and demand principles beyond his usual stock investments, demonstrating flexibility and insight into the commodity market’s potential. Although investing in commodities like silver was unusual for Buffett, who prefers companies with strong competitive advantages, this trade highlights the importance of adaptability and the opportunities that commodities can offer when market conditions are right.
Buffett’s venture into silver is a lesson in how seasoned investors can use supply and demand fundamentals to find attractive opportunities, even outside their typical areas of expertise.
It is important to note that supply and demand dynamics can be used to make currency trades as well not just in traditional commodities. George Soros famously “broke” the Bank of England in 1992 through a massive bet against the British Pound. Recognizing the unsustainable position of the pound within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), amid Britain’s high inflation and low interest rates compared to its ERM counterparts, Soros anticipated that the pound was overvalued and could not maintain its pegged rate. He heavily shorted the pound, betting on its devaluation.
As pressure mounted, the British government spent billions in reserves trying to prop up the pound but eventually capitulated, withdrawing from the ERM. The pound plummeted, and Soros’s Quantum Fund made an estimated profit of over $1 billion. This trade highlights how supply and demand dynamics can be applied to currencies, not just commodities. Soros leveraged his understanding of the economic fundamentals affecting supply and demand for the pound, executing a trade that demonstrated the impact of these forces in currency markets.
Concluding Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
The quest to determine an asset’s intrinsic value is more art than science. No single method can capture all the nuances of an asset’s worth. Instead, intelligent investors triangulate between different methods, leveraging the strengths of each to arrive at a more comprehensive understanding of value. However, it’s crucial to remember that intrinsic value calculations are based on assumptions about the future, which are inherently uncertain.
Moreover, the concept of intrinsic value is not just confined to financial analysis. It also encompasses an understanding of broader market forces, consumer behavior, and even geopolitical dynamics. In the end, intrinsic value is a hypothesis — a well-educated guess about an asset’s true worth that guides investment decisions. Whether investing in stocks, evaluating a whole business, or pondering the future value of real estate, intrinsic value remains a cornerstone concept that blends analytics, intuition, and foresight.
In a world driven by numbers and rapid information exchange, the inartistic value of this intricate dance between calculation and speculation highlights the human aspect of finance. It’s a reminder that behind every asset, every valuation, and every investment, there lies a story, a potential, and a risk, all waiting to be understood and navigated.
The information presented in this article is the opinion of Jacobs Investment Management and does not reflect the view of any other person or entity. The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.